In terms of absolute numbers of births can not be judged on the level of fertility. It would be statistically illiterate state, as it is often made in the media that in 2000, the birth rate in Russia increased by 52 thousand newborns, because this year thousands of children born in 1267, and in the previous year, 1999 - 1215 only thousand itself without comparing the number of births to the population does not give any idea of ​​the level of fertility. For example, in the same year 2000, the number of births among the urban population of Russia amounted to 886,908 (70% of all births in the country), and among the rural population - only 379892 (30%). But this does not mean that the birth rate in urban areas is higher than in rural areas. After all, the urban population was at the end of 2000 - 105.6 million, while the rural -39200000 or respectively 72.9 and 27.1% of the total population. To get even the most common, an approximate idea of ​​the level of fertility, should be divided by the average annual number of births population. In 2000, the country came into being 1266.8 thousand children. Resident population by the beginning of the year - 145 559 thousand at the end of the year - 144 819 thousand Arithmetic average of these two values ​​is called the average population of 145 and 189 thousand From this we can determine that the total fertility rate, ie the number of births per 1000 inhabitants: There are five common factors that characterize the intensity of natural mating and movement of the population. We take data for 2000: - Total fertility rate = 8.7% o - Total mortality rate = 15.4% o - The general rate of natural (decrease) increase (crude birth rate - crude death rate) = - 6.7% of - Crude marriage rate = 6.2% o - The total divorce rate = 4.3% o. These indicators are often non-specific and are provided in the literature. The negative side of these indicators is that they are depending on the age structure of the population. That is, if a lot of young people, the birth rate exceeds the death rate, even when the majority of single-child families, if the population is very old, it can be reduced even with the prevalence of large families. For example, in the region 1970-1977. total fertility rates among Russia's urban population was higher than that of rural (see Table. 2). The average number of children per woman in the villages, then as now, was greater than in urban areas, but the sex and age composition of the population in rural areas is less favorable to fertility, than in urban areas. This is due to the mass migration of rural youth to urban areas. Table 2 Changes in total fertility rates in the Russian Federation Years Total fertility rate (per 1,000 people. Population) in% compared to 1960. The birth rate in cities in% to the level in the villages the entire population of the entire population of urban rural urban rural 1960 23.2 20.4 26.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 77.0 1961 21.9 19.7 24.7 94.4 96.6 93.2 79.8 1962 20.2 18.3 22.7 87.1 89.7 85.7 80.6 1963 18.7 16.8 21.4 80.6 82.4 80.8 78.5 1964 16.9 15.4 18.9 72.8 75.5 71.3 81.5 1965 15.7 14.4 17.6 67.7 70.6 66.4 81.8 1966 15.3 14.3 16.9 65.9 70.1 63.8 84.6 1967 14.4 13.7 15.6 62.1 67.2 58.9 87.8 1968 14.1 13.5 14.9 60.8 66.2 56.2 90.6 1969 14.2 14.1 14.5 61.2 69.1 54.7 97.2 Calculated from: Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2001. Moscow: Russian State Committee for Statistics, 2001. S. 57-59. Depending on the structure of the population by sex and age - it is a practical disadvantage of total fertility rate, as well as all other common factors. The influence of changes in the age composition of the population can be explained by changes in the overall rate of 0.1-0.2% per year, but not more, as the one year age structure can not change abruptly. Therefore generic coefficients still can be used to analyze the dynamics of the process in one country, city or region in a short time - the coefficient of variation of 0.3% or more of one year does point to increase or decrease the intensity of the process. Therefore, when the figure varies significantly (by 0.3% or more for about one year), the conclusions about the direction of the dynamics of the process can be done on the basis of common factors, if existing statistical information does not allow to calculate more than adequate performance. However, this indicator is not suitable for comparing fertility rates in different regions, because the age composition of the population in each of them may differ significantly from the structure of the population of the regions with which a comparison is made. To estimate the intensity of a demographic process, should the number of vital events (births, deaths, marriages, divorces) does not divide by the total population, and the number of producing contingent, that is, the portion of the population, which may be relevant demographic events. For such a contingent of birth are women of reproductive age (15-49 years). Table 3 Dynamics of specific birth rates in Russia for the years 1958-2000. * Years Special fertility rate (per 1,000 women aged 15-49) in% to the level of 1958-1959. The birth rate in% to the level in the villages the entire population of the entire population of urban rural urban rural * Calculated from: Demographic Yearbook of Russia, 2001. S. 140-142. Figures calculated for producing contingent called special coefficients. Special fertility rate is calculated by the formula: where F (15-49) - a special fertility, N - the number of births in a given year, W (15-49)-the average number of women 15-49 years old in a given year. Sometimes this figure is called fertility rate (from Lat. Fertilis - fertile). According to the special fertility rates (see Table. 3) for all of the last 40 years, including the period from 1970 to 1977., The birth rate in urban areas was lower than in the countryside. Crude (see Table 1.) In this case only misleading. And the general and special factors characterize the entire fertility, all mortality, all of marriages, etc. In calculating both general and specific factors favor the numerator of the fraction number of births (all deaths, all marriages, etc.). The denominator of the fraction as advocates for the annual average number of common factors of the population, and for special factors - the average number of relevant producing contingent.